1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment…
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month…
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains…
Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to…
Sweden is a small export-oriented economy and its high sensitivity to global trade makes it a good bellwether of global growth developments. The headwinds from high borrowing costs are relatively more pronounced in Sweden…
The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China,…
Total consumer credit rose by USD 6.4 billion in April (to USD 5,053 billion outstanding), from a USD 1.1 billion decrease in March (a large downward revision to the USD 6.3 billion rise initially reported) and significantly shy…
We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.
The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?