Euro Area small caps typically outperform large caps whenever the trade weighted euro appreciates and underperform whenever it depreciates. The rationale is simple. Most European large cap companies are large multinationals that…
Flash estimates for several European PMIs were released Tuesday. The results for manufacturing activity were somewhat disappointing. The German manufacturing PMI increased from 41.9 to 42.2, but underperformed expectations of…
Retail gasoline prices have surged 13% since the beginning of the year, boosted by resilient global demand and geopolitical tensions. A key question for investors pertains to the ability of US consumption to sustain further…
Preliminary S&P PMIs for the US showed the manufacturing index declined to contraction territory of 49.9 from 51.9, falling short of expectations of 52. The services PMI also disappointed coming in at 50.9, versus…
Q1 earnings results of the largest US banks have demonstrated that the engine of recent growth in profitability, NII, has faltered as funding costs are rising fast. However, the resurgence in non-NII thanks to a revival in corporate…
According to BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service, European profit margins have downside because they are both elevated and procyclical. European net margins stand at 7.7% above their long-term average…
Over the last weeks, US semiconductor stocks have plunged by over 17%. In a way, this correction should be expected. Semiconductor stocks had skyrocketed this year. Even after the recent pullback, semi stocks…
By the end of 2023, the “soft landing” scenario became the dominant narrative in financial markets. Following the regional banking scare in March of last year, market participants slowly came around to the view that…
UK retail sales volumes were flat in March, a decrease from the 0.1% growth registered in February and disappointing expectations of a 0.3% m/m increase. The details were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-…
Export dynamics of small open economies are a bellwether for global growth. The latest Taiwanese and Korean export numbers are consistent with a revival in global trade. Taiwanese export orders grew by 1.2% y/y in March…