European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?
BCA’s US Beige Book Monitor – an indicator we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s Beige Book report and which historically tracks US GDP growth – has improved in April. Nevertheless…
The IMF’s latest fiscal monitor report highlighted the dangers that rising sovereign debt alongside rising deficits pose to advanced economies. The United States, in particular, is at risk. The IMF projects that fiscal…
Japan’s national CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, falling to 2.7% y/y versus consensus estimates it would remain at 2.8% y/y. Notably, measures of underlying inflation such as core CPI (ex-fresh food) and “…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service provides its take on US Q1-24 earnings expectations. Room for surprise? Positive earnings surprises have been a fixture of nearly every earnings season since the darkest…
Nvidia has amassed staggering sales from AI. Last year its data center revenues exploded, going from just over $4 billion in 2023 Q1, to over $18 billion in 2023 Q4. That said, its competitors have not done as well. In the…
The equity risk premium – calculated as the 12-month forward earnings yield minus the 10-year real rate – continues to drop both for US and global stocks, standing at 2.7% and 3.7% respectively. The compression of the…
The headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, increasing from 3.2 to a twelve-month high of 15.5 and beating expectations it would soften to 2.0. Measures of demand…
The Asian currency index posted the largest negative post-GFC abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. Indeed, Asian currencies have been on a general downtrend since early 2023, and more…