Developments in US multi-family housing are particularly relevant for the inflation outlook since they inform the future direction of shelter inflation – an important component of CPI inflation. Indeed, the Zillow multi-…
UK inflation came in hotter than expected in March. Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 0.6% m/m – above expectations of a slowdown to 0.4% m/m. Moreover, while the headline and core measures both decelerated on an…
In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service while Telecoms are not attractive on a strategic investment horizon, as a low-beta defensive sector they offer excellent downside protection for a portfolio. The…
One of the most important factors for the success of tech stocks over the 2010s was monopoly power. Companies like Google, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft managed to develop entrenched moats in their own niches. This monopoly power…
Optimism about the future continues to boost investor confidence in the Euro Area. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+10.4 to 43.9) and Germany (+11.2 to 42.9) surged and are now both at their highest in 26…
UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the…
Chinese economic data releases painted a mixed picture of domestic conditions on Tuesday. Chinese real GDP growth accelerated from 5.2% y/y to 5.3% y/y in Q1 2024, beating expectations of 4.8% and suggesting that economic…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…