The message from Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech on Wednesday could not be clearer: there’s still no rush. While market participants as well as the FOMC are still pricing in three rate cuts this year, the…
The recent rally in commodity markets is drawing the attention of the investment community and financial media. It’s not just cocoa – which has experienced a staggering 118.4% year to date increase that has further…
At 3.9% in February, the unemployment rate remains quite low in the US, corroborating the signal from GDP that current economic conditions are fine. Similarly, the Sahm Rule – which currently stands at 0.3 pp – has…
The US economy expanded at a faster pace than previously believed in 2023Q4. GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% q/q rate, thus annulling the second estimate’s downward revision. Notably, consumption growth was revised even…
Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election…
We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.
Inflationary pressures this year will remain subdued as labor-productivity growth – driven by strong capex and R+D spending – continues. This will make the Fed more confident in beginning its policy-rate-cutting cycle in June, and…
In an Insight we published yesterday, we highlighted that the S&P 500 rally has recently stopped narrowing with the gap between the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices stabilizing over the past month. This has also…
The Swedish krona was among the weakest G10 currencies on Wednesday following the Riksbank meeting. Although the central bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged as expected, the post-meeting communication was on the dovish side.…
Chinese industrial profit growth surged to 10.2% y/y in the first two months of the year after having contracted by 2.3% in 2023. Does this rebound in profits suggest that investors should become more optimistic about the Chinese…