Cresting price pressures and weak global growth reinforce our long duration stance, with labor market slack limiting inflation upside across most major economies. Our price pressure indexes show moderate input inflation outside…
Although we think the economy is weaker than investors realize, it has remained resilient and we will not fight the tape forever. If clear signs of a recession do not emerge over the next six weeks, we will drop our defensive…
June core capital goods orders missed, confirming subdued capex momentum and reinforcing our defensive stance and long duration bias. Orders fell 0.7% m/m, below expectations, while shipments rose 0.4%. Headline durable goods…
Tokyo CPI data confirms persistent inflation pressures in Japan, keeping the BoJ on a hawkish footing and reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. July Tokyo CPI came in broadly in line, falling to 2.9% y/y…
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but…
The ECB held rates steady for the first time in eight meetings, signaling a slower pace of easing while downside risks and entrenched disinflation support positioning for further cuts. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.0%,…
Recent criticism of the Fed centers on post-GFC policy, but proposed solutions would risk policy incoherence and higher long-end yields. Criticism covers the Fed’s reliance on balance sheet policies aimed at easing financial…
The post-Liberation Day dichotomy between improving soft data and worsening hard data points to an uneven recovery, keeping us positioned for downside risk. Soft data cratered post-Liberation Day as policy uncertainty and market…
RBA minutes confirmed a cautious approach to easing, reinforcing our underweight in ACGBs and long AUD/NZD stance. The decision to hold at 3.85% surprised markets expecting a 25 bps cut. Governor Bullock had framed the decision…