On the surface, the latest Taiwanese export orders release delivered a positive signal on the global trade cycle. The 1.9% y/y expansion in January marks a significant improvement from the 16.0% contraction in December. Moreover…
New Zealand government bonds rallied, and the NZD was the worst performing major currency on Wednesday following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy announcement. Although the central bank’s decision to…
US GDP growth for Q4 was revised lower from 3.3% to 3.2% annualized, driven by a downward revision to private inventory investments (now detracting 0.27 points from a previous 0.07 contribution to GDP). However, consumer spending…
The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the odds of a “Minsky Moment” are low for the Chinese banking sector. Chinese banks, however, will continue facing cyclical and structural headwinds…
On the surface, the US durable goods report delivered a negative surprise on Tuesday. The 6.1% m/m drop in new orders in January fell below expectations and the December figure was revised down to 0.3% m/m from 0.0% m/m.…
Our US economic sentiment indicator – which is based on the difference between our equity valuation index and our bond valuation index – remains on an uptrend since its pandemic trough. Investors are pushing US stocks…
Japan’s CPI inflation dropped from 2.6% to 2.2% y/y in January. However, the sharp slowdown comes on the back of falling energy prices. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s core-core measure of underlying inflation (CPI excluding…
The US Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence release surprised to the downside. The index decreased to 106.7 from a downwardly revised 110.9, disappointing expectations it would improve to 115.0. Consumers’…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better…