Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points…
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold purchases by central banks will continue apace, as they diversify away from USD foreign reserves. Amid elevated geopolitical risk, arising from…
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that service sector activity is expanding across DM economies in February. Most notably, services PMIs are back at or above 50 in Australia and the Eurozone from previously contracting levels.…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, European political risk is turning up again. Increased European political risk is not because of the European parliamentary elections, which will see right-wing…
Chinese equities are extending their gains following the end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Onshore stocks have gained 9.0% since February 5, outperforming the global benchmark by 7.5 percentage points over this period. Similarly…
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting underscore that policymakers are adopting a cautious approach in timing the pivot to policy easing. Although Fed officials acknowledged that inflation and employment risks are “…
Canada’s January CPI release shows price pressures cooling last month. Headline CPI eased to 2.9%y/y from 3.4%y/y in December, below expectations of 3.3%y/y. Furthermore, month-over-month inflation fell for the first time…
Japanese exports in JPY increased by 11.9% y/y in January, up from a 9.7% y/y increase in December and surpassing expectations of 9.5% y/y. A 29.2% y/y jump in exports to China led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian…
We rank the US spread sectors in terms of risk versus reward.