BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates…
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be…
Over the past few months we have been highlighting that there are some budding signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity. Most notably, the new orders-to-inventories ratio of Sweden’s manufacturing PMI has been…
The latest Canadian data suggest that although demand is cooling down, the Canadian economy is not in freefall. The unemployment rate fell for the first time since December 2022, declining by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7%,…
China’s credit data update for January delivered a mixed signal on Friday. The CNY 6.50 trillion increase in aggregate financing beat expectations of CNY 5.60 trillion and marked a significant acceleration from CNY 1.94…
Easier financial conditions, rising home prices, rebounding consumer sentiment, and a stabilization in manufacturing activity all augur well for near-term US growth prospects. An unsustainably low savings rate is a key risk to the US…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, after falling 80% over the past year, lithium prices will continue to trade lower. Lithium is critical for green technology and defense equipment,…
The dominance of large tech companies in the S&P 500 has caused concern amongst investors. The Magnificent Seven now represent 30% of the index. These companies have more than doubled in value over the past year, in contrast…
Last Friday’s blockbuster US employment report is among the recent data releases that have focused investors’ attention on the possibility that resilient economic conditions will reduce the magnitude of Fed easing…