Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.
Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and…
Deteriorating macro momentum supports a defensive asset allocation stance as hard data deteriorates. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs confirmed that growth is slowing and price pressures are easing from a high level.…
Stronger-than-expected June inflation will likely keep the Riksbank on hold in August, despite soft underlying trends. Headline inflation accelerated more than expected to 0.5% m/m (0.8% y/y), while CPI ex-housing rose to 2.9% y/y…
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within…
The latest data on Asian exports and manufacturing suggest that the global trade outlook remains downbeat. Korean exports in USD terms grew in June by 4.3% y/y. The three-month moving average is 2.2%. Assuming Q2 export shipments…
Canada’s stronger currency and tightening financial conditions point to further BoC easing and support long Canadian bond positions. The CAD has appreciated this year alongside the global push to diversify away from USD assets, which…
Our China strategists maintain a defensive stance on equities, favoring government bonds and high-dividend sectors as deflation persists. China’s deflationary pressures are supply-driven, with manufacturing capacity expanding faster…
June’s employment report showed a tick down in the unemployment rate, an improvement that rules out a Fed rate cut later this month.