On the surface, domestic economic data painted a mixed picture of conditions in China at the end of 2023. On the positive side, the December trade data beat expectations. The dollar value of Chinese imports expanded by 0.2% y/…
In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the recent improvement in global manufacturing and Asian exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle amelioration rather than a cyclical recovery. Global…
The best leading indicator for post-pandemic US wage inflation is the ratio of job vacancies to ‘bad’ unemployment (V/U), where bad unemployment refers to ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’. This…
US corporate bonds performed well last year with both investment grade and high-yield spreads narrowing in 2023. Indeed, the 12-month breakeven spreads are relatively low – especially in the case of investment grade.…
US CPI inflation for December came in slightly hotter than anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Both the monthly and…
We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI report.
The combined US credit impulse and fiscal thrust indicator will likely relapse in 2024, heralding growth weakness. Stalling US sales volume and falling inflation, combined with sticky labor costs, will herald a non-trivial profit…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, hypo-globalization is the best way to understand the global trade environment. But de-globalization is more likely than re-globalization. A period of “…
Crude oil prices weakened following the release of the US EIA’s weekly report on Wednesday, reversing gains earlier in the session and ultimately ending the day lower. The data release showed commercial crude inventories…