In Section I, we discuss the implications and potential risks of the Fed’s recent pivot. The near-term implications of the Fed's dovish pivot are likely to continue to be bullish for risky asset prices, and a new high in global stock…

The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely.…

Special Report

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will…

Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market.

Special Report

Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.

Special Report

Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays.

Our last publication of 2023 is an illustrated guide to our view that the economy will enter a recession around midyear. We expect equities will underperform Treasuries and cash over much of 2024, but we are waiting to turn…

Special Report

In this week’s report, we present our dollar view for 2024 and beyond, with a few trade ideas.