US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a…
Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI print and the bond market’s reaction.
In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing…
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later. Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second…
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury…
Agriculture commodity prices have been on a steady decline for over a year. Since peaking in mid-May 2022, the GSCI Agriculture index has dropped by 34% -- nearly half of which occurred in 2023. The weakness is generally broad-…
China's money and credit data remained weak in October. New total social financing amounted to RMB 1.85 trillion – less than the RMB 1.95 trillion anticipated and below the prior month's increase of RMB 4.12…
European markets have room to rebound in the coming weeks, however, a recession looms. What are the lessons from history that investors can use to position themselves under these conditions?
Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth…
