UK inflation surprised to the upside in April. Headline inflation rose to a 15-month high of 3.5%, from 2.6% the month before. Core inflation also surprised above estimates, printing 3.8% vs. 3.4% in March. Services inflation climbed…
Japan’s export growth slowed materially in April as shipments to the US, Japan’s largest export destination, fell 1.8% from a year earlier. Japan has yet to make a trade deal with the US. Japanese export growth slowed to 2% from…
Deteriorating US consumer sentiment and surging inflation expectations add to growth concerns and reinforce our long-duration bond stance. The preliminary May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed expectations,…
Weak April housing data and deteriorating builder sentiment reinforce our defensive stance, as recession risks remain underpriced. Housing starts rose at a 1.6% m/m annualized rate, missing expectations. Similarly, building permits,…
A strong Australian labor market is limiting the scope for RBA easing, reinforcing our underweight on Australian government bonds. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income Strategy team.…
Our EM strategists warn that China’s overinvestment problem has no quick fix, keeping deflationary pressures in place and limiting upside for Chinese equities. Excessive domestic investment, driven by aggressive credit creation, is…
April retail sales slowed, but signs of resilience in discretionary spending and labor data suggest US consumers are holding up. Headline retail sales rose 0.1% m/m, above expectations but decelerating from the upwardly revised 1.7%…
The US-China trade truce lifted short-term manufacturing sentiment in May, but margin pressures persist, reinforcing the case for defensive, domestic-focused equity positioning. The Empire and Philly Fed regional manufacturing…
Our Geopolitical strategists expect a Ukraine ceasefire as Russia’s economic weakness compels Putin to shift focus from war to domestic stability. The likely outcome is not peace, but a frozen conflict that enables Russia to…