Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.
This year’s plunge in tech stocks followed by the recent strong countertrend rally is eerily reminiscent of 2000. But the market and economic parallels between 2025 and in 2000 run much deeper. This report lists 10 striking parallels…
UK labor market weakness is reinforcing the case for BoE cuts and supporting our overweight in UK Gilts. April payrolls fell by 33k, marking a third consecutive monthly decline, while job vacancies remain below pre-COVID levels for…
China’s weak April credit data reinforces the case for defensive positioning, with policy aimed at stability, not recovery. New yuan loans and aggregate financing both rose less than expected. While credit growth may have bottomed,…
April’s CPI came in cooler than expected, but tariff-driven supply shocks will keep the Fed tight, supporting long-duration exposure. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (2.3% y/y) while core inflation held steady at 2.8%. Services inflation…
Small business sentiment remains recessionary, supporting our defensive asset allocation stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell less than expected to 95.8, reinforcing the cratering in soft data witnessed since the…
A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US…
The US-China trade truce triggered a market rally, but tight policy, lingering inflation risks, and tariff-related drag still support a defensive stance. Risk assets and the USD surged on Monday following the de-escalation…
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
