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Economy

Mexico’s Geopolitics: From Headwind To Tailwind

Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to other emerging markets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk
Falling Risk Aversion Supports Europe, But Gains Are Capped
European equities have some short-term support, but global growth risks will cap gains. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief European Investment Strategist. Mathieu sees probable but limited upside for European equities in the near term. His…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Softening Canadian Jobs Signal Paralysis, Not Collapse
Soft April jobs confirm the Canadian labor market stall, yet we remain neutral on CGBs and structurally bullish on the CAD. The unemployment rate rose more than expected to 6.9% from 6.7%. Employment growth exceeded expectations but remains soft at 7.4k after…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Junk Bonds Cheapen Up

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Turkey: Erdogan's Decline
Our Geopolitical strategists recommend underweighting Turkish assets. Erdogan’s weakening rule, rising social unrest, and eroding governance are deepening Turkey’s macro deterioration. Inflation will stay sticky as odds of new government spending rise, and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Riksbank: A Dangerous Wait-And-See Approach
The Riksbank’s cautious stance sets up a dovish pivot, reinforcing our long Swedish bonds view and SEK fade vs. USD. The central bank held rates at 2.25% for the second time this year, with Governor Thedéen describing policy as well-balanced despite rising…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Global Inflation Divergence
The inflation divergence between the US and Eurozone drives our call to stay long US duration. Inflation, typically a lagging indicator, blends slow-moving labor pressures with fast-moving supply drivers. The COVID inflation spike was a rare fusion of both,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Softcore Downturn


It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too sanguine about the risk of a US recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Miroslav Aradski
Türkiye: Erdogan's Decline

Erdogan's rule continues to decline. Social unrest will persist, governance will erode, and the macro backdrop will deteriorate further. We recommend underweighting Turkish assets. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma
PBoC Eases To Cushion Growth And Boost Trade Leverage
The PBoC’s latest easing aims to cushion growth risks and strengthen Beijing’s position ahead of US trade talks. In a rare pre-announced decision, China’s central bank cut its policy rate by 10 bps and the reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps, delivering…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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