Advanced US indicators for April continue to deteriorate, reinforcing our defensive positioning as recession risks remain underpriced. After weak Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing prints, the Philly Fed services survey shows the…
Weak European consumer confidence adds to recent sentiment misses and reinforces our tactical long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. April flash Consumer Confidence fell to -16.7 from -14.5 in March, missing…
Our EM strategists recommend upgrading CE3 assets within EM portfolios, as a structural shift in the global currency regime is underway. They expect the greenback to depreciate against the euro amid a global downturn, supporting…
President Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell is intensifying, but keeping Powell in place offers the administration political cover while keeping bond yields contained. Removing Powell would be legally difficult and risk…
The latest UK data supports a May BoE cut, reinforcing our overweight in Gilts as growth headwinds build and inflation cools. Employment declined by 78k in March, accelerating from February’s downwardly revised 8k drop, while…
The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our…
Soft data for the US labor market has turned sharply lower, reinforcing the case for a defensive asset allocation. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Miroslav Aradski from our Global Investment Strategy team. While it may take months…
Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raise policy uncertainty but are unlikely to lead to Powell’s removal, reinforcing our expectation for continued restrictive policy and supporting our long duration stance. Trump'…
Weak housing data reinforces our defensive positioning, as recession odds remain underpriced in risk assets. US housing starts fell sharply, declining a larger-than-expected annualized rate of 11.4% in March after a 9.8% rebound in…