Economy
The ECB’s latest 25 bps cut and President Lagarde's notably dovish tone amid rising trade uncertainty reinforce our long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. The deposit facility rate now stands at 2.25%, and Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary…
Soft data for the US labor market has turned sharply lower, reinforcing the case for a defensive asset allocation. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Miroslav Aradski from our Global Investment Strategy team. While it may take months for the tariff shock and…
Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raise policy uncertainty but are unlikely to lead to Powell’s removal, reinforcing our expectation for continued restrictive policy and supporting our long duration stance. Trump's intensified criticism…
Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and EUR/USD.
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.
Brazil’s deteriorating fiscal dynamics and rising stagflation risks reinforce our negative stance on Brazilian assets, both outright and relative to EM peers. The latest global financial turmoil, combined with President Trump’s disruptive tariffs and China’s…
Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation expectations rise, with spending, hiring and capex plans…
Please join BCA Research's Chief US Equity Strategist, Irene Tunkel, for a US Equity Intelligence session on Wednesday, April 16 at 9:00 AM HKT, 11:00 AM AEST.
Cooler inflation will not shift the BoC’s stance, as stagflation limits potential easing, keeping us neutral on Canadian bonds. In March, headline CPI slowed more than expected to 2.3% y/y from 2.6%. However, lower energy prices drove much of the downside…