Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European…
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
We reiterate our defensive global asset allocation, as risk assets face an asymmetric outlook whether growth slows or re-accelerates. The March US jobs report came in stronger than expected, with payrolls rising by 228k. However, the…
With both the Trump and Fed puts drifting lower, we reiterate our above-benchmark duration stance within a government bond overweight and favor Treasury curve steepeners. If the Trump put’s strike price is declining (See The Numbers…
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend staying defensive and adding exposure to EM local currency bonds, which will benefit from US dollar depreciation over the medium and long term. While tariffs are deflationary for US trading…
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
The March ISM Services report sent a recessionary signal, supporting our defensive positioning. The headline index fell sharply to 50.8 from 53.5, missing expectations. New orders dropped to 50.2, while employment collapsed to 46.2…
China’s economy remains subdued, supporting our overweight in onshore local-currency bonds and a selective approach to local equities. March Caixin PMIs showed only marginal improvement, with the composite index rising to 51.8 from…
Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.
Low correlations and regional dispersion are shaping market dynamics, creating selective opportunities outside the US even as near-term risks remain. Asset classes tend to become highly correlated during crisis episodes, limiting…