Economy
President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions to countries that are negotiating, which he will showcase as proofs of his successful trade policy. While he may backpedal on his tariffs on other countries, China is not likely to receive the same treatment due to the US-China strategic competition.
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.
The stimulus measures driving the post-COVID expansion were beginning to wane after five years and pointing the economy in the direction of an organically occurring recession. Now that DOGE and the multi-front trade war have sped up the timetable, we reiterate our risk-off recommendations.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
