Economy
The March ISM Services report sent a recessionary signal, supporting our defensive positioning. The headline index fell sharply to 50.8 from 53.5, missing expectations. New orders dropped to 50.2, while employment collapsed to 46.2 from 53.9. Prices paid also…
Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.
Markets had a risk-off reaction to the Trump administration’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing the case for defensive portfolio positioning. The proposal includes a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, a 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles, and…
Our US Equity strategists recommend caution on quantum computing, as the industry is still too early-stage for reliable investment exposure. Although quantum computing (QC) is on the verge of major breakthroughs, pure-play QC stocks remain unprofitable and…
Low correlations and regional dispersion are shaping market dynamics, creating selective opportunities outside the US even as near-term risks remain. Asset classes tend to become highly correlated during crisis episodes, limiting diversification when it is…
Remain constructive on Argentine assets as recent market moves are a tactical pullback, not a loss of confidence. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates has widened, prompting concerns that markets are questioning President Milei’s liberalizing…
Eurozone inflation is cooling steadily, supporting our tactical overweight in German bunds versus European equities and increasing the odds of an April ECB cut. Headline HICP eased to 2.2% y/y in March from 2.3%, while core came in cooler than expected at…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists recommend maintaining an underweight allocation to corporate credit versus government bonds in global fixed income portfolios. Within corporates, they are neutral on the US, UK, Japan, and Australia, and underweight on…
Labor market data continues to cool, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and above-benchmark duration stance. February job openings fell to 7.6m, below expectations. Declining quits and rising layoffs signal that labor market slack is increasing.…
The March ISM Manufacturing adds to the recent stagflationary impulse, but markets remain focused on the growth drag, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. The headline index fell more than expected to 49.0 from 50.3, with new orders and employment…