An analysis of historical data shows that Ba-rated bonds outperform other corporate credit tiers in the long-run on a risk-adjusted basis. That said, today’s fragile macro environment warrants a more cautious allocation.
Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit…
European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?
Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu believes the recent outperformance of European over US risk assets is unlikely to last over the next 3-6 months.…
The March flash estimate for European Consumer Confidence missed estimates, and fell to -14.5 from -13.6 in February. This negative reading is the first European sentiment number missing expectations since January. The sentiment…
Our Emerging Market strategists reviewed their recommendations on South African assets as economic prospects start fading. South Africa’s fiscal tightening will suppress growth without achieving the necessary 4.2% primary…
Brazilian policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no combination of fiscal and monetary policies that can assure decent growth, on-target inflation, a stable exchange rate, and public debt sustainability. We…
The March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index beat expectations, but still fell from 18.1 to 12.5, significantly down from January’s lofty 44.3 reading. Most activity components slowed except for current employment and work hours.…
The Bank of England held its policy rate at 4.5%, with only one MPC member dissenting to cut 25 bps. The BoE signaled a slower pace of easing, as inflation remains elevated while global growth becomes increasingly uncertain. …