After a period of relative stability and progress towards policy orthodoxy, politics are again haunting Turkish assets. President Erdogan jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a political rival from the opposition party gaining…
Our China strategists published a quick note on China’s property market following the release of housing data earlier this week. China’s housing market is showing early signs of stabilization after three years of crisis, though…
The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.
Data released this Monday suggests that while China’s housing market is no longer worsening, the secular adjustment remains ongoing. Although aggregate housing demand may be stabilizing at a low level, supply will continue to…
The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-to-4.5% as expected, and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The FOMC remains comfortable waiting and assessing the impact of recent and upcoming policy changes. The dots reflected…
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.50%, but maintained a hawkish bias, making it the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures. More rate increases are…
Our European strategists looked at the European defense sector after the massive rally following Germany’s fiscal turnaround. The rally in European defense stocks, up over 100% since their March 2023 recommendation, is…
The market reaction to this afternoon’s Fed meeting looks overdone. Investors could be in for a hawkish surprise when it becomes apparent that the Fed won’t ease policy into higher tariff-driven inflation prints.
US February housing data was relatively strong, with housing starts rising 11.2% m/m after falling 9.8% in January. While they fell less than expected, building permits still declined at a faster pace than in January. The March NAHB…
The March ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 51.6 from 26.0 in February. The current situation assessment only marginally improved yet remains deeply negative at -87.6.…