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Economy

Second Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Into The Abyss

In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
UK: Fragile Macro Meets Tighter Financial Conditions
UK financial conditions have tightened just as economic surprises have turned negative, an uncomfortable combination that reinforces our tactical positioning. We remain overweight UK gilts within a global bond portfolio and are tactically short GBP/USD from…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Macro Momentum Turns, Markets Follow
Macro momentum is deteriorating rapidly, and we remain defensively positioned as risks build. Business and consumer confidence have fallen sharply, and while the US post-election period began with optimism, policy uncertainty has since taken over, prompting a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Recession NOT Imminent, Says This New Indicator

The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.7 million workers above labour supply, and the job vacancy rate is running comfortably above the unemployment rate. This suggests that the labour market is still supply-constrained, and that a demand-driven recession is not imminent. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, more about our ‘trade of the century’: long cotton versus coffee.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The UK Chancellor's New March Budget Is Credible

This report is a quick take on our views on UK bonds and FX, given the recent budget.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Core Capex Orders Fall As Uncertainty Rises
A drop in core capex orders points to slowing business spending and softening global growth. Businesses appear to have front-loaded shipments ahead of potential tariffs while deferring new orders amid policy uncertainty. With hiring and capex plans softening…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Delinquency Paradox
Our US Investment Strategy team recommends investors remain defensively positioned. Stay underweight US equities and overweight Treasuries and cash, on both a tactical and cyclical horizon, as the likelihood of a midyear recession continues to rise. With key…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Cooling Prices, Fragile Policy Mix
UK inflation came in cooler than expected in February, but lingering price pressures and a still-firm labor market keep the BoE sidelined, for now. Our Global Fixed-Income strategists view the BoE as the most likely DM central bank to surprise on the dovish…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Higher Inflation Volatility Demands New Playbook
The years ahead will be more complex for investors. Inflation expectations and its leading indicators will matter as much as realized inflation, and rates volatility is likely to remain structurally higher. This calls for increasing strategic allocations to…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Consumer Confidence Craters, Inflation Expectations Spike
A sharp drop in consumer confidence adds to signs that a consumption slowdown is coming, threatening both US and global growth. Yet rising short-term inflation expectations will keep central banks cautious, weighing on long-term yields even as growth weakens.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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