The February US CPI came in cooler than expected. Headline inflation decelerated to 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y), as did core which now stands at 3.1% y/y. Core services inflation declined while core goods inflation was roughly unchanged.…
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 2.75% as expected. This seventh consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range. The BoC is in a tough place. The trade war…
Our Commodities strategists assessed the outlook for oil as crude remains pulled between geopolitical and fundamentals forces. OPEC+’s decision to raise oil supply is driven more by geopolitics than economics. A sustained…
A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.
The February NFIB Small Business Optimism index decreased more than expected to 100.7 from 102.8. The decline extends the reversal seen since the November US election as policy optimism yields to uncertainty. The signal from the…
Our US investment strategists believe the Trump administration’s resolve to cut spending as well as tariff uncertainty have increased the probability of a recession.The Department of Government Efficiency’s sweeping cuts may…
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by…
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and…
Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income strategy team. Robert digs into Eurozone employment dynamics. January data showed that unemployment remains at record lows, but regional…