The February Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates for the third month in a row, falling to 98.3 from 105.3. Consumers’ assessment of both their current situation and their expectations worsened, with the latter…
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the…
Fourth-quarter European negotiated wages growth cooled to 4.1% y/y, down from the 5.4% peak seen in Q3. The cooling is in line with the ECB’s Wage Tracker showing wage growth decelerating to 1.3% by the end of the year. Labor…
Our US Investment strategists visited Midwest clients, and provided a summary of their discussions with investors. Despite solid data, investors should focus on where the economy is headed rather than where it has been. Excess…
Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
The February Dallas Fed Manufacturing index missed estimates, contracting at -8.3 vs. expanding at 14.1 in January. The underlying details of the report were quite poor, with current and future measures of activity broadly ticking…
US growth has slowed in recent weeks. This can be seen in the weaker data on retail sales, consumer confidence, services PMIs, and a swath of housing releases (notably starts, existing home sales, homebuilder confidence, and stock…
Two of our favorite indicators recently sent important signals. The first one, the short-term stock-bond yield correlation, recently drifted back to neutral territory after being negative. The correlation had been negative since…
February’s flash PMIs for the major developed markets showed softening growth, and rising price pressures. The US composite index missed estimates and decreased to 50.4 from 52.7 in January. Services were a big contributor to the…
Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German…