Ryan will outline the value proposition in US bonds and discuss the main factors that will determine the direction of yields over the next 6-12 months, including:
While the main Q1 2025 theme has been “America First”, the year-to-date market story has been more nuanced. “America First” would suggest an outperformance of US assets, but it is European assets that have started the year on a…
Preliminary estimates of Q4 real GDP growth in Japan was stronger than expected, rising to 2.8% q/q annualized from 1.7% in Q3. Domestic demand remained strong, and the GDP deflator increased to 2.8% y/y. Japan’s economy is…
In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we…
The January US Producer Price Index came in slightly hotter than estimates, but decelerated to 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) from an upwardly-revised 0.5% in December. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, was also stronger…
While inflation concerns prevail in the US, Swiss inflation hit its lowest level in almost four years. Headline CPI contracted 0.1% m/m in January, leaving the annual inflation rate at 0.4%, near the bottom of the Swiss National Bank…
If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on…
The January US CPI came in hotter than expected. Headline inflation accelerated to 0.5% m/m (3.0% y/y), and core to 0.4% m/m (3.3% y/y). Core goods and services inflation also moved higher, with the latter boosted by a sharp increase…
Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.