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Economy

ISM Manufacturing: A Stagflationary Impulse
The February ISM Manufacturing index was weaker than expected, declining to 50.3 from 50.9. New orders plunged to 48.6 from 55.1, with employment also contracting. Price pressures however increased. Prices paid and suppliers’ delivery times jumped to their…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trump Chaos: Double Down On Defensives
Our Geopolitical strategists received a lot of client questions following rapid US political developments, and addressed them in their latest report. US policy uncertainty is spiking, driving global uncertainty higher. Tariff implementation in March and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Euro Area: Services Disinflation Remains Under Way
February flash inflation for the Eurozone was slightly hotter than expected but nonetheless declined, with both headline and core inflation falling 0.1% to 2.4% y/y and 2.6%, respectively. Services inflation also declined to 3.7% from 3.9%. While Europe…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Escaping Europe’s Liquidity Trap

Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Is AI Increasing Productivity? A Checklist
Our Bank Credit Analyst strategists published their latest monthly report, and Section II aims to assess whether AI is leading to a productivity increase. Our colleagues remain unconvinced that Generative AI is a true productivity revolution, though it…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tokyo CPI Remains Hot
The February Tokyo CPI print came in slightly cooler than expected. Headline inflation moderated to 2.9% y/y from 3.4%, while “core core” was steady at 1.9%. The Tokyo CPI gives an advance reading on national price pressures, and the data suggests…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumer Spending Slows Amid Higher Tariff Risk
January PCE inflation was in line with expectations, with headline and core inflation rising 0.3% m/m, leaving the respective annual growth rates at 2.5% and 2.6%, near the Fed’s projection for 2025. Consumer spending missed expectations and was weak in both…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumers See A Vibe Shift
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, from our Global Asset Allocation (GAA) strategy service. Juan highlights weakening US growth observed in the data lately.  We have seen a few growth slowdown episodes since 2022. Why is this time…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Geopolitics Month Ahead (Tariffs, Nukes, Two Sessions)

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's China policy will cause volatility. Now that the stock market is cracking, reinitiate defensive trades, such as long treasuries versus US stocks and long global defensives versus cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
The Tariff Shock And The Fed’s Response

Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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