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Economy

Watch This Indicator For A -20 Percent Market Slump

If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on it on our website. Plus: an update on our recent trades.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US: Hot January CPI Leaves Underlying Disinflationary Trend Unchanged
The January US CPI came in hotter than expected. Headline inflation accelerated to 0.5% m/m (3.0% y/y), and core to 0.4% m/m (3.3% y/y). Core goods and services inflation also moved higher, with the latter boosted by a sharp increase in car-insurance…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Reset The Timer

Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Peter Berezin's Thoughts Of The Day: Many Moving Parts

In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
A Tactical Reprieve For European Assets?
While geopolitics captured the latest headlines, Eurozone  economic surprises  have turned positive, while those in the US are on the verge of turning negative. Global economic surprises hinge on expectations and realized data, and they play a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Small Business Post-Election Euphoria Dissipates
The January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased more than expected to 102.8 from 105.1. After reaching near all-time highs in the wake of the election, expectations pulled back somewhat as uncertainty took center stage.  The decline was…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe Is Next
Our European strategists evaluate the looming threat of US tariffs on Europe, as it is President Trump’s next trade target after Canada, Mexico and China. While a deal centered on European energy imports and defense spending is likely, uncertainty will remain…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Chinese Inflation Distorted By Seasonality
China’s January consumer prices rebounded to 0.5% y/y, and producer price deflation was unchanged at -2.3%. China’s first quarter data tends to be distorted by the Chinese New Year, as its variable dates shift consumption peaks around without a clear pattern.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
On The Watch For Rising US Inflation Expectations
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations’ 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations were unchanged in January. Five-year ahead expectations however increased, as did expectations for staples inflation, while spending expectations…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Le Plus Ça Change

The 3-3-3 plan pitched by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will need several improbabilities to break its way if it is to meet its goals. We think it is much more likely that the plan will disappoint. Defensive asset allocations will outperform once it becomes clear that 3-3-3 will fall short, but we are currently neutral across the board because the disappointment may be months away.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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