Economy
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure decreased, reversing the…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
This is a follow-up report on Bessenomics – the policy mix that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to pursue. The direction of US and global financial markets depends on the amount of fiscal tightening required to bring down US interest rates. Can the Trump administration cut fiscal spending just enough to bring down US bond yields but not cause a recession?
December job openings missed estimates, decreasing to 7.6m from an upwardly revised 8.2m in November. Quits, hires, but also layoffs all ticked up marginally, leaving the general “slowing-but-not-collapsing” direction of the labor market…
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but down by more than 8% vs.…
Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for tight policy. The second…
The January ISM Manufacturing index beat estimates, increasing to 50.9 to end a 26-month streak of manufacturing contraction. New orders rose to 55.1 from 52.1. Employment is also back in expansion. Prices paid strengthened as well, rising to 54.9 from…
Our Global Investment strategists offered their initial thoughts on the nascent US trade war with its allies, with a few longer-term takeaways. President Trump’s decision to delay Mexico tariffs on Monday highlights the uncertainty surrounding trade…
January flash inflation for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations, with headline HICP ticking up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4% in December, and core steady at 2.7%, above the ECB’s target. Services ticked down to 3.9% from 4.0%. The Eurozone inflation outlook…
President Trump shot the opening salvo of his second trade war, announcing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with a more modest 10% on China and Canadian energy. Both countries retaliated with tariffs and non-tariff measures. Financial markets initially sold…