January’s flash PMIs for the major developed markets showed that manufacturing contracted at a slower pace and service activity continues to display significant regional differences. Moreover, the performance gap between the US and…
While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
Our US Equity strategists preview the 2024 Q4 earnings season, and look at the results from banks. Q4 earnings growth is set to impress, with small and mid-cap earnings surging and S&P 493 growth turning positive, though…
East Asian trade data was mixed in December and January. Taiwanese export orders for December were stronger than expected, rebounding to 20.8% y/y from 3.3% in November. On the other hand, Korean exports for the first 20 days of…
Our Emerging Markets strategists put together a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent on what economic policy would look like for the Trump 2.0 administration. …
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
The January ZEW index for Germany missed estimates, with expectations falling to 10.3 from 15.7 in December. However, the euro area level index ticked up to 18 from 17 a month prior. Measures of current conditions also rose. The…
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction…
Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a…