Our US equity strategists just published their annual outlook, where they discuss the environment and rotation they foresee in 2025, which is more bullish than our House View. Our colleagues see Trump 2.0 policies…
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…
Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026.…
China’s November trade balance increased to CNY 692.8 bln on the back of slowing-but-still-growing exports (down to 5.8% y/y from 11.2% in October), and a worsening imports contraction (-4.7% y/y vs. -3.7% in October). In…
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism index beat expectations, jumping to 101.7 from 93.7 in October. Outside of inventory satisfaction, which was flat, all index subcomponents increased, led by measures of expectations. The…
In the final installment of their “PIGS Have Wings” special series, our European investment strategists took a deep dive into the Spanish economy and financial assets. Spain outperformed most developed markets…
The December Sentix Economic Index for the Euro Area missed expectations, declining to -17.5 vs. -12.8 in November. Both the current situation and expectations components declined. As the first sentiment indicator for…
Chinese deflationary pressures intensified in November, with CPI ticking down to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% in October. Producer prices deflation eased, with prices falling 2.5% y/y, less than -2.9% y/y a month prior. The weak data…
Our Counterpoint strategists published their 2025 outlook; they see major market movements for the year ahead hinging on Japan. Japan remains the cornerstone of global liquidity, with rising Japanese real yields posing a key…