The US Treasury yield curve recently bull flattened, with the 2-year/10-year segment almost completely flat. Meanwhile, the breakeven inflation curve has re-inverted, with 2-year breakeven inflation rate now above the 10-year…
The US November jobs report was mixed. Payrolls rose by 227k vs. an upwardly revised 36k in October, leaving the 3-month moving average at 173k. The unemployment and underemployment rates however rose 0.1% to 4.2% and 7.8%,…
Our GeoMacro Strategy service published their 2025 outlook, and they see three peaks shaping the year: Peak fiscal, peak-deglobalization, and peak geopolitical risk. In 2024, our colleagues’ bullish economic outlook…
German factory orders decreased less than expected in October, falling 1.5% m/m after rising 7.2% in September. Excluding major orders, which often distort the overall picture, core new orders rose 0.1%, after rising 2.7% a month…
OPEC+ extended its production cuts for the third time, and lengthened the period over which it plans to bring spare capacity back online. Oil prices continue to trade near the bottom of their trading range despite the…
Our European Investment Strategy and GeoMacro Strategy teams published a joint report, digging into the structural challenges behind Europe’s economic underperformance, while pointing out to potential turnaround…
The November ISM Services PMI missed expectations, declining to 52.1 from 56 in October. All subcomponents declined, with new orders falling from 57.4 to 53.7. Employment also weakened but remains in expansion, while price…
The November Caixin services PMI ticked down to 51.5, which along with a rising manufacturing PMI pushed the composite up to 52.3 from 51.9. Components such as new orders and employment also ticked down, and output prices fell to…
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a modestly growing economy imbued with post-election optimism, while highlighting some caution about employment. The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report and foresee a change of trend for 2025. “Thin is back in” for government budgets, growth, and valuations. The post-…