Economy
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y. We do not expect…
Taiwanese export orders surprised positively when a deceleration was expected, printing at 4.9% y/y, up from 4.6% in September. The increase was spread across most categories, with exports of electronic products accelerating to 11.2%. Japanese exports also…
Our US bond strategists expect yields to remain volatile, and do not have confidence that yields have peaked yet. The transition period to a new US administration introduces headline risks on where fiscal policy is headed. At about 4.4%, the…
Housing activity data missed expectations and decreased in October. Building permits came out at 1.416m vs. 1.428m in September, and housing starts decreased from 1.354m in September to 1.311m. Units under construction keep falling. Meanwhile, the November…
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…
With cross-asset price action mainly revolving around the Trump trade since the election, Tuesday’s headlines surrounding Russia and Ukraine brought investors’ attention back abroad. As predicted by our Geopolitical strategists, Russia responded to the Biden…
Our Global Investment Strategy team examined the risk of a fiscal crisis amid rising global debt levels. Stabilizing the US debt-to-GDP ratio would require a nearly 4% GDP improvement in the primary budget balance at current Treasury yields. Reducing…
East Asian exports reveal the global economy keeps decelerating. Singaporean non-oil domestic exports (NODX) missed expectations and decelerated in October, falling 7.4% m/m (-4.6% y/y). Electronics exports grew 2.6% y/y, slowing down from 4.0% in September.…
As talks of a market “meltup” abound, we used last Friday’s edition of our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting to assess our asset allocation recommendations. Our House View has been underweight equities since March, a recommendation reinforced by two of our…
Chinese activity indicators showed resilience in October, with retail sales jumping from 3.2% to 4.8% y/y. Industrial production growth was roughly unchanged at 5.3% y/y. New and used home prices keep falling, albeit at a slower pace. We would fade this…