Although foreseen by our US & Geopolitical strategists, a “Red Sweep” now makes the macro environment more volatile. After convening for our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting, we offer three main takeaways.…
Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in…
The post-COVID inflation pushed bond yields higher, turning the stock-bond yield correlation negative and taking away bonds’ hedging properties. The relationship normalized this summer as economic data surprised negatively…
The October ISM non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations, rising to 56 from 54.9 in September, up from a sub-50 low in June. Most components indicate an expansion, but the only significant increase came from employment. New orders…
Given the charged atmosphere surrounding the US election, our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues investigate whether the Fed’s dovish pivot last December was politically motivated. The Fed’s actions appear overly…
Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical…
The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets.
The October global manufacturing PMI printed at 49.4, up from 48.7 in September but still in contractionary territory. While output stabilized at 50.1, new orders (48.8) and new export orders (48.3) remain in contraction, as is…
As markets settle into waiting mode for the US election, we provide a concise but not exhaustive cheatsheet for what to expect as the results come out. Our US & Geopolitical strategists’ two most likely outcomes are a…
Our Global Asset Allocation Strategy colleagues argue in their monthly report that while a soft landing is a possibility, it is already reflected in asset pricing. A Trump victory would be a threat to this scenario. Inflation…