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Economy

China: No Turning Point In October
China’s October data for inflation and money disappointed. Headline CPI decelerated to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.4% in September, and PPI deflation worsened at -2.9% vs. -2.8% a month prior. While broad measures such as M2 accelerated, new loan growth has…
Daily Insights
What’s Next For The Dollar?
The US dollar steamrolled its peers since early October. After breaking out above its 200-day moving average, it is now fast approaching recent highs. Multiple factors drove this rally, among them are the stronger-than-expected US economic data, weaker data…
Daily Insights
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Another Look At The Labor Market

The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a more opportune entry point to bet against risk assets once the election fever runs its course.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US: Keep An Eye On Inflation Expectations
The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectations, rising to 73 from 70.5 a month prior. Expectations drove the increase, jumping to 78.5 from 74.1, while current conditions worsened by 0.5 points to 64.4, missing…
Daily Insights
Buy Chinese Bonds!
As highlighted recently, we do not think China’s announced stimulus measures will be enough to stave off deflation (see Today’s Pick). To lift China’s economy, Beijing must unveil large fiscal transfers to households and some initiatives to lift property…
Daily Insights
China: Taking Notes From Client Meetings
Our China Investment Strategy team recently met with clients in China to assess investor sentiment and discuss the outlook as Beijing unveils new stimulus measures. China’s economic recovery faces headwinds and is unlikely to stabilize until mid-2025.…
Daily Insights
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A Gradual Approach In Response To Uncertainty

This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper
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Raising Our US Recession Probability Following Trump’s Victory

The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75%.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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It’s Not 2016 All Over Again

Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
BoE: A Hawkish Cut Signals The MPC Is In Charge
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE…
Daily Insights

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