Economy
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today, inflation worries have eased, but…
In a trendless yet volatile year for oil, Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran this weekend is a reminder the outlook is fraught with geopolitical risks. Risks are usually expressed as a geopolitical price premium, but this weekend’s events point to a…
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in. More optimism is warranted as…
Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a recession and we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.
The “core core” (ex. fresh food & energy) segment of the Tokyo CPI basket beat expectations in October, printing at 1.8% year-over-year and accelerating from 1.6% in September after troughing at 1.5% in July. The Tokyo CPI is a timely indicator of…
Eurozone money and credit data beat expectations, with M3 accelerating to 3.2% year-over-year in September from 2.9% a month prior. Household and corporate lending both drove the improvement. This development echoes the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey,…
Global economic surprises have improved. Currently positive and improving in the US, they are rising from a low level in the Eurozone and China. Two explanations could explain this momentum. First, the recent easing in financial conditions may have boosted…
Savings must either flow into domestic investment, or abroad. Saving too much, with nowhere to funnel it, is breaking China’s economic model according to our Global Investment Strategy colleagues. As China's share of global manufacturing climbed to 30%,…
Trump may be slightly favored for the White House but the US election is still extremely close. Odds of a contested or contingent election are rising, which should cause stock market volatility. A Republican sweep should cause more volatility. Democratic gridlock is next most likely but benign for stocks in the short run.
