Recent positive US economic surprises drove cross-asset pricing, pushing both equities and Treasury yields higher. What do these yield levels mean for the Treasury market, and what path can we expect looking forward? Our US…
After improving throughout the summer, the October release of the first monthly regional Fed manufacturing survey sent a negative signal about US manufacturing activity. General business conditions from the Empire State…
Canadian headline inflation rose 1.6% year-over-year in September, lower than the expected 1.8% and down from 2.0% in August. This was also its slowest pace since February 2021. The decrease was mainly driven by gasoline prices,…
Economic expectations for the both Germany and the Eurozone ticked up in October and surprised positively for the first time since they collapsed this summer. The assessment of current conditions however worsened, going from -84.…
The UK August employment report was in line with recent data showing an economy humming at a decent pace. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1pp to 4% after peaking at 4.4% before the summer. The BoE will look kindly to the…
Our China and Emerging Market strategy teams analyzed this weekend press conference by the China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), that provided additional details on the recently announced fiscal stimulus plan. Our…
To produce a moderate economic recovery, at least RMB 3 trillion in additional government expenditures is needed in H1 2025. Our bias is that Beijing is not yet ready to launch such a massive fiscal support measure. Hence, volatility…
This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.
Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our…
In this Insight, we assess whether investors should expect fiscal turbulence in the UK, that will drive UK yields higher and the pound lower.