It is too early to say that the US labor market has turned the corner. We assign a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession over the next 12 months, with the downturn likely to begin in the first half of 2025. Accordingly,…
We give our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and (lack of) market reaction. We also close our short position in January 2025 fed funds futures.
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in September. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.0 to 47.8 and from…
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a…
The Sentix Investor Confidence index unexpectedly improved in October from -15.4 to -13.8. A notable improvement in Expectations (from -8.0 to -3.8) drove the overall index higher, while the Current Situation subcomponent…
At its October meeting, the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 bps to 4.75%. The decision was not accompanied by an updated economic forecast or press conference and the latest forecast in August…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the important election takeaway for investment strategy comes from the Senate. The Senate is highly likely to fall to Republicans. They are nearly certain to win…
The NFIB Small Business Optimism index was mostly flat in September, ticking a mere 0.3 points higher to 91.5 in September, below expectations of a more meaningful improvement to 92.0. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has…
Consumer credit growth slowed in August, rising by USD 8.9 bn (to USD 5,097.6 bn outstanding) from USD 26.6 bn, disappointing expectations of a USD 12 bn monthly increase. Notably, revolving credit (which includes credit cards)…
Regular readers are familiar with our expectations for a global recession over the cyclical investment timeframe. A global downturn is overwhelmingly bearish for oil demand. The supply side, on the other hand, is…