Emerging Markets
BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, but the conviction is not the same everywhere.
Outside semiconductor stocks, EM/China profitability has been well below both their US peers and the levels that prevailed during the EM structural bull market in the 2000s. Over a 3- to 5-year horizon, EM/China relative equity performance versus global will be range-bound.
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, and favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, neutral on gold, constructive on copper, and very bullish on oil.