Emerging Markets
We maintain 37% odds of a major recessionary oil shock, 51% odds of minor shocks, and 12% odds of no shocks.
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) provided no insights Tuesday on the size or nature of the fiscal stimulus Beijing promised in late September. The key takeaway of the authorities' first briefing following a weeklong national holiday…
In the fifth installment of a BCA Special Report series on nuclear energy, our colleagues argue that US nuclear energy dominance is decaying. Though still the world’s leader in generation and capacity, the US will not hold the mantle indefinitely given high…
The month of October ahead of a US general election tends to be a volatile month with negative outcome for equities. As such, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until after the election.
Indian equities reached new highs in late September. Our Emerging Market strategists recommend dedicated EM investors use these gains as an opportunity to reduce Indian equity allocations from neutral to underweight. They expect both profits and multiples to…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher, from 101.6 to 105.0. …
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, intra-market repricing will offer investors a unique opportunity to enter the industrial real estate space in the next two years. In the short term, Mexico will be a big winner…
The European Commission voted to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The announcement follows previous tariffs imposed on Chinese EV imports back in June. This new round of economic sanctions will only have a minor…
Claudia Sheinbaum officially became Mexico's new president amid significant market pessimism. Our Emerging Market strategists highlighted that investor fears about Mexico’s constitutional changes were largely unwarranted. Investors have overreacted to…
In response to the Chinese stimulus announced in late September, our Emerging Market strategists upgraded EM equities to no more than neutral. Indeed, while these measures have triggered a sentiment-fueled rally from depressed valuation levels, conditions…