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Emerging Markets

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Are Greek Assets A Buy?

Absolute return investors should be tactically cautious on Greek assets. Dedicated EM equity portfolios, however, should overweight Greek stocks.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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Tracking Labor Market Momentum

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
Can Higher Productivity Prolong The Expansion?
We have previously highlighted that an upside surprise in China’s fiscal stimulus as well as an AI-triggered jump in US productivity could potentially prolong the expansion, and constitute two key risks to our recession view. Recently announced government…
Daily Insights
Strong Chinese Imports Do Not Signal Robust Demand
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, robust iron ore imports are sending a false signal about steel demand. Instead, these supplies are being used to restock inventories. By the end of last year, iron ore stocks at Chinese…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Slowdown Story Remains Intact

The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
China's Additional Stimulus Measures Continue To Underwhelm
China’s NBS manufacturing PMI declined further in July, from 49.5 to 49.4, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. New orders and new export orders underscored continued weakness in both domestic and foreign demand conditions. Meanwhile, the NBS…
Daily Insights
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Full-Blown Mideast Crisis

The war in the Middle East is expanding, upgrading our subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37% and underscoring our 60% odds of Republican victory in November. Volatility should spike again as investors contemplate the prospect of rising oil prices amid slowing US and global growth. Tactically investors should stay overweight energy stocks relative to other cyclicals and favor oil producers in the Americas rather than Middle East.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
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US Politics In August And September

Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Fade China's Industrial Profits
Chinese industrial profits growth accelerated in June, rising from 0.7% y/y to 3.6%. Profits expanded at 3.5% in the first half of 2024, compared to 3.4% in the first half of 2023, and suggest that China’s manufacturing sector remains resilient. A slower…
Daily Insights
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Will The ECB Save The Day?

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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