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Emerging Markets

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Nuclear-Friendly Megatrends

AI, EVs, and reshoring will lead to a massive surge in demand for electricity. Carbon-free, cheap, baseload nuclear energy stands to greatly benefit from these megatrends going forward.

BCA Special Reports by Jeremie Peloso, Guy Russell
Domestic And Global Headwinds Weigh On Chinese Profits
Chinese industrial profit growth slowed in the first three months of the year to 4.3% YTD y/y, from 10.2% y/y in January and February. The March slowdown is meaningful since industrial profits outright contracted by 3.5% relative to March 2023. Weak…
Daily Insights
A Durable Recovery In Chinese Stocks?
2023 was an awful year for Chinese equities. Though last year, the MSCI China Investable index declined by over 10% even as global equities rallied by over 20%. The pain extended into January of this year, with Chinese stocks underperforming the global…
Daily Insights
The Outlook For CE3 Currencies
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that among the CE3 currencies, the zloty and the koruna will be the relative winners, while the forint will likely be the worst performer of the three. That said, all three CE3 currencies will weaken…
Daily Insights
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China’s Stagnating Economy

China’s economy is cruising at a very low altitude. The odds are that China’s equity rebound is running out of time. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar in the coming months, albeit the pace may be modest.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu
Asian Trade Suggests Strong Global Growth Momentum
Export dynamics of small open economies are a bellwether for global growth. The latest Taiwanese and Korean export numbers are consistent with a revival in global trade. Taiwanese export orders grew by 1.2% y/y in March following a 10.4% y/y contraction in…
Daily Insights
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The Margin Risk

European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Israel's Response To Iran

The implication is that Israel chose not to escalate the risk of direct war with Iran. Hence we remain in our base-case “Minor War, Minor Oil Shock” scenario.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Commodities Stand On Shaky Ground

This year’s rise in commodity prices represents a blow-off rally rather than the start of a durable bull market. The global economy is heading for a recession. Stocks, commodities, and other risk assets are vulnerable.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
EM Asian Currencies Have Further Downside
The Asian currency index posted the largest negative post-GFC abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. Indeed, Asian currencies have been on a general downtrend since early 2023, and more recently fell 3.2% in absolute…
Daily Insights

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