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Emerging Markets

Disappointing Singapore NODX Hides Positive Dynamics
Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…
Daily Insights
Is Dr. Copper Sensing A Chinese Recovery?
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the selloff in the price of iron ore – which is down 25.4% year-to-date – is sending a pessimistic signal on China’s economy, suggesting that the current rally in Chinese stocks is unlikely to persist over a cyclical…
Daily Insights
Structural Trends in Emerging Markets Debt: Global Savings Glut
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the risk curve, EMD is sensitive to…
Daily Insights
Emerging Markets Debt: Cyclical And Strategic Perspectives

We assess where emerging markets debt is on a strategic and cyclical basis. We find it has benefited from local central banks boosting their inflation-fighting credentials and governments improving financial stability. As a result, EM debt is behaving less like a risk-on asset, changing the role it plays in a global portfolio. We also expand our asset allocation playbook by assessing how the asset class behaves across the business cycle. While EM debt is more than a risk-on play, we suggest investors stay cautious on a cyclical horizon.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Chinese Credit Demand Remains Muted
Chinese private sector credit demand remained weak in February, sending a negative signal about domestic economic conditions. Total social financing growth slowed from a record CNY6.5 trillion in January to CNY1.56 trillion, below consensus forecasts of…
Daily Insights
Chinese Equities: A Sustainable Rally Or A False Start?
Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since February 5th, with the former…
Daily Insights
China's Cyclical Outlook: What Would It Take To Become More Positive?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination thereof— might lead them to upgrade their…
Daily Insights
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Take Profits On Inflation Hedges

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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No Game Changer

The stimulus measures announced at last week's NPC were not a game changer. As in 2023, we expect aggregate government spending will fall short of the budgeted amount again this year.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
South Africa: Headed For A Recession
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the South African economy is heading into a recession later this year. The South African government refrained from announcing any stimulus measures in its recent budget proposals. The fiscal plan for 2024-25…
Daily Insights

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