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Emerging Markets

Taiwanese Export Orders: Signal Or Noise?
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive signal. The pace of decline…
Daily Insights
Singapore's NODX: The Rebound Continues?
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global manufacturing activity. As such, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are a bellwether for global growth. Singapore’s NODX delivered an upside surprise on…
Daily Insights
A Lasting Improvement In Global Sentiment?
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so far in November. And as we…
Daily Insights
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Carry Trades And The Coming Curse From Volatility

In this report, we evaluate the risk to carry trades in the coming months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Watch Taiwan, Not US-China, For Détente

Investors should not get their hopes up about the Biden-Xi summit. Wait to see if a new ruling party is elected in Taiwan before downgrading geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait. US-China strategic détente is possible but neither the geopolitics nor the macro backdrop warrant a risk-on position next year.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
Growing Number Of Chinese Cities Experience Falling New Home Prices
The latest house price data indicate that China's housing market remains weak. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities declined by 0.4% m/m in October – a faster pace of decline than the 0.3% m/m drop registered in September…
Daily Insights
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Taking The Pulse Of China’s Capital Flows

China’s capital outflows will likely remain substantial at least through the next few quarters. This wave of capital outflows will likely be more chronic, albeit less acute than the 2015-16 episode. Persistent capital outflows will exert downward pressure on the RMB.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu
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2024 Brent Forecast Down A Tad To $112/bbl

US and Chinese oil-demand strength will offset EU weakness next year. Incremental supply growth from non-OPEC 2.0 producers, coupled with a lower risk of the US enforcing its sanctions on Iranian oil exports, reduces our 2024 Brent price forecast by $6/bbl, and takes it to $112/bbl.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
China: Heed The Signal From Positive Data Surprises?
On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y following a 5.5% y/y increase in…
Daily Insights
China's Impossible Trinity
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened liquidity and steered interest rates…
Daily Insights

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