Emerging Markets

As the major central banks once again mull their policy options, they face a daunting task. They must phase-transition inflation back to imperceptible, without phase-transitioning unemployment to perceptible. This report explains why this will prove impossible, and what central banks will likely prioritise. Plus: the collapsed complexity of the recent stock market rally signals excessive trend-following. Until the complexity normalises, we are reluctant to chase the rally.

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

In response to the first-ever federal indictment of a former President, investors should focus on the state of the economy and not on Trump’s legal trouble. They should also use the current market rally to stock up on protection, as a recession is still likely, albeit delayed.

Global semiconductor demand will continue contracting, even though the pace of decline will moderate in 2023H2. While demand has increased briskly for Artificial Intelligence-type semiconductors, this will not be enough to lift aggregate global chip sales out of contraction. While momentum could push Emerging Asian semiconductor stocks higher in the short term, their share prices are vulnerable to the downside due to shrinking demand.