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Emerging Markets

Still Too Early To Take Equity Risk
Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary policy in 2022, the S&P 500 was…
Daily Insights
Manufacturing PMIs, The Real Economy, And Commodities

Slowing manufacturing PMI indices globally indicate the slowdown in economic activity will persist. Manufacturing demand for commodities will also soften, weighing on industrial commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions and the race to the green energy transition will upend enmeshed global supply chains, which will also impact manufacturing activity. It is possible that stimulus in China will arrest the decline in the state’s manufacturing activity, which will have positive spillover effects to its key trading partners.   

Commodity & Energy Strategy
Chinese Exports Return To Contraction
Chinese trade data delivered a disappointing signal about the global manufacturing cycle. After a brief rebound in March and April, exports dropped by 7.5% y/y in USD terms last month – below consensus estimates of a 1.8% y/y decline. The decrease was…
Daily Insights
Will EM Stocks Continue Underperforming?
After a brief period of outperformance in late-2022/early-2023, Emerging Market stocks have been underperforming their Developed Market counterparts since January 19. While the DM equity benchmark is up 6.9% over this period, the EM index has lost 4.0% in USD…
Daily Insights
US-China Tensions Are Still High
The Biden administration reached out to China to try to reduce tensions over the month of May, attracting interest from the investment community, though our Geopolitical Strategists believe the US and China cannot agree to a genuine strategic détente until…
Daily Insights
Top Of The Range

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
KSA Surprises With 1mm b/d Cut

Following this weekend’s OPEC 2.0 meeting, KSA announced a 1mm b/d crude output cut, slated for this July or August, as it attempts to support weak oil prices. The new output quotas, reduced to reflect members’ weak crude oil production will continue until end-2024. UAE’s quota was the only one raised in acknowledgement of its higher production capacity. On the back of this announcement, we continue to expect brent prices will average $90/bbl this year.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
The Best FX Trades In The Coming Months

In this short weekly report, we review some of our favorite FX trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Leading Indicators Bode Ill For Global Manufacturing
The Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.6 in May – below the 50 boom-bust line for the ninth consecutive month. The details of the release were mixed. On the one hand, the Production sub-component rose to an 11-month high of 51.5. On the other hand,…
Daily Insights
China Poised To Launch Stimulus
Our colleagues in BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) service expect the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to announce a new round of policy stimulus to re-boot the economy, in an effort to escape a prolonged liquidity trap and address continued…
Daily Insights

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