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Emerging Markets

OPEC 2.0 Bound By Quota
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, oil supply management by OPEC 2.0 and production discipline outside the coalition will be maintained, forcing inventories lower. Russia’s gray and dark fleets have become adept at…
Daily Insights
Policymakers Versus Markets: A Looming Standoff

Global growth will weaken in the coming months, yet monetary authorities worldwide will be reluctant to ease policy. This state of affairs foreshadows a clash between markets and policymakers in the months ahead. China’s recovery is losing steam. The latest divergence between Emerging Asian and LATAM currencies will not last.

Emerging Markets Strategy
The Enigma Of Oil Fundamentals

EM oil demand remains resilient and will continue to be propelled by global growth this year. Supply management by OPEC 2.0 and production discipline outside the coalition will be maintained, forcing inventories lower. Recent price weakness – largely reflecting political uncertainty – has pulled our 2023 Brent forecast down to $90/bbl (from $95/bbl); our 2024 forecast remains at $115/bbl.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
Singapore Exports: Lingering Weakness
Singapore’s trade numbers continue to send a warning for the global economy. The year-on-year pace of decline in non-oil domestic exports deepened in April after slowing in the prior two months. Importantly, the weakness is particularly pronounced among…
Daily Insights
Has The Rand Reached Its Low Point?
The South African rand is among the worst performing major global currencies since the DXY peaked on September 27 (behind only the Argentine peso, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira). Given that the ZAR is a high-beta currency, it typically performs well in a…
Daily Insights
On China’s Underwhelming Recovery
The latest Chinese economic data releases for April signal a disappointing domestic recovery. Weak economic conditions during the Shanghai lockdown last April created a low base effect which boosted the annual comparison. However, the 5.6% y/y increase in…
Daily Insights
Stay Underweight Indonesian Stocks
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay underweight Indonesian equities within Emerging Market and Emerging Asian equity portfolios. Unprecedented export earnings have pushed Indonesia’s current account into a…
Daily Insights
Erdogan Heads To A Runoff Election
Results of Turkey’s presidential election show incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan securing 49.5% of the votes in Sunday’s contest – ahead of his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. Although Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost 29 seats in…
Daily Insights
Two Elections: Turkey And Thailand

The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies and as such reinforces our underweight position in Turkish equities. By contrast, the Thai election reinforces our recommendation to stay overweight Southeast Asia relative to global equities.

Geopolitical Strategy
China’s Recovery Disappoints
Chinese economic data sent a disappointing signal about the country’s economic recovery. CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% y/y – its slowest pace since February 2021. Similarly, the pace of decline in producer prices accelerated to -3.6% y/y. Meanwhile,…
Daily Insights

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