Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Emerging Markets

Erdogan On The Brink

Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long Turkish equity volatility.

Geopolitical Strategy
Will China Revert To Its Old Stimulus Playbook?
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the recovery in China’s economy (other than the consumer sector) to underwhelm.  A recent conversation with a one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists (whom they refer…
Daily Insights
A Conversation With A Chinese Pundit

This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important insights and provide context into recent developments in China’s economy.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Base Effects Distort Signal From Chinese Exports
China’s trade release shows exports grew for the second consecutive month in April. However, base effects are distorting the signal. In particular, the two-month-long Shanghai lockdown that started at the end of March 2022 weighed on Chinese exports in April…
Daily Insights
Indian Stocks: Do Not Bottom Fish Just Yet
The Indian equity market has fallen by about 15% from its peak last year. Nevertheless, our Emerging Markets Strategists expect a further decline as both drivers of stock prices – EPS growth and multiples – remain vulnerable in India. EPS will contract due…
Daily Insights
CBAM Likely To Be Inflationary
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impart an upward bias to prices in the EU and its trading partners’ economies. Within the EU, the CBAM will have an inflationary…
Daily Insights
Indian Stocks: Is It Time To Upgrade?

Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
China’s Politburo: No Helicopter Money
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the late April meeting of China’s Politburo suggests that the Chinese government will maintain the accommodative macroeconomic policies outlined in March. Compared to last December’s Central…
Daily Insights
The 2023 Outlook For Consumer Spending In China

China’s reopening, combined with a slew of pro-consumption policy stimuli, will likely boost household consumption by 10% in nominal terms in 2023 from a year ago. Some of the hardest hit service sectors during the pandemic will experience a strong recovery. Within the A-share market, investors should overweight the consumer discretionary sector versus the Chinese CSI300 benchmark.

China Investment Strategy
Caveat Emptor (GeoRisk Update)

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics