Emerging Markets
The Mexican peso is the only major currency that has appreciated against the US dollar since the greenback’s February 2 bottom. Notably, USD/MXN has lost 1% over this period, despite the broad trade weighted dollar’s 1.9% appreciation. This MXN strength is…
Investors should avoid / stay underweight Turkish stocks and local currency bonds versus their respective EM benchmarks. Stay underweight Turkish sovereign credit.
Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have less exposure to geopolitical risk.
Several timely indicators released this week continue to point to poor global manufacturing conditions. In particular, despite the sharp rebound in Services PMIs, the flash Manufacturing PMIs for February remain below the 50 boom-bust line across major DM…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that China’s consumption growth will rebound strongly this year following an extremely dismal performance in 2022. China’s post-pandemic re-opening is creating a mean reversion in the country’s…
Pent-up demand for consumer goods and services will boost Chinese household spending this year. Beyond the next 12 to 18 months, however, structural forces will likely drive Chinese household consumption growth lower than in the pre-pandemic era.
Asian trade data continue to highlight that global demand for goods remains weak. South Korean exports in the first 20 days of February fell 2.3% y/y – marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. Although the contraction was not as pronounced as the…
In a recent insight, we highlighted that Chinese housing construction is unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound. Although Beijing has rolled out easing measures to stimulate the ailing property market, our China Investment strategists have argued that the…
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports continue to send a bleak signal about global demand. They fell by 25% y/y in January, registering the fourth consecutive annual decline. The weakness was broad-based across all of the major export categories. Notably,…
The latest house price data indicate that the worst is over for China’s housing market. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities were broadly unchanged on a month-on-month basis in January. This development is notable because…