Emerging Markets
The Israel-Iran conflict is escalating, raising the odds of a major oil supply shock and reinforcing the case for cash, US equity overweight, and tactical energy exposure. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political…
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Chinese Equities: Between Hopes And Headwinds
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US-China Trade De-Escalation Won’t Drive New Highs
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BCA’s EM strategists argue that a global macro shift is underway: A weaker US dollar will drive a retrenchment in US domestic demand and imports. Unlike previous cycles, dollar depreciation will be deflationary for the rest of the world rather than…
The May Brazilian CPI suggests that price pressures may have reached a peak, but do not expect immediate monetary easing to support fixed income markets. Headline CPI slowed to 5.3% y/y from 5.5% April, but core CPI remained flat at 6.1%. Despite…
Unlike in past episodes, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world. In this context, EM local currency bonds offer a superior risk-reward profile. Stay long domestic bonds in select EM countries.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
China’s tourism sector has rebounded meaningfully since the January 2023 COVID reopening; however, investors should not be complacent about the outlook for tourism stocks. The double-digit revenue growth of the Chinese tourism industry over the past…