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Emerging Markets

Singapore NODX Warns Against Overweighting EM
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports are sending a warning about global demand. They declined by 5.6% y/y in October, marking the first annual contraction since November 2020. In particular, non-oil exports to China, the EU, and Emerging Markets are…
Daily Insights
Timing The Bottom In Chinese Equities
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that although Chinese equity valuations are cheap, the breakdown in share prices below their long-term technical supports merits a vigilant stance. One of the signposts the team is monitoring to…
Daily Insights
Timing The Bottom In China’s Stock Market

The conditions for a sustainable rally in Chinese stocks have not been met. In this report we discuss the four signposts which we will closely monitor to gauge when it will be warranted to upgrade our stance on Chinese equities both in absolute terms and relative to the global stock benchmark.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
A Trading Range In Oil Prices

Global oil supply will slightly exceed demand in the next six months, resulting in a small surplus. Brent oil prices will trade in a range with a floor at $80 per barrel, barring any geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and/or escalation in the West-Russia conflict.

Emerging Markets Strategy
China’s October Economic Data Disappoint
Key indicators of Chinese domestic economic activity in October generated negative surprises. Retail sales contracted by 0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of a growth slowdown from 2.5% to 0.7%. Similarly, industrial production and fixed assets investment…
Daily Insights
An Imminent Chinese Property Recovery?
Shares of Chinese property developers rallied sharply on Monday following news of Beijing’s 16-point plan to help resuscitate its struggling property market. The measures announced include extensive support for both property developers as well as home buyers.…
Daily Insights
Hong Kong Is Under A Triple Assault

The HK dollar is under an assault from rising US interest rates and a weak economy. To defend the exchange rate peg, the HKMA will continue to tighten liquidity, which will boost HK interest rates above those in the US across the entire yield curve. That will cause major damage to this economy and HK-domiciled companies' stocks. Downgrade the MSCI HK equity index within a global portfolio from neutral to underweight.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu, Arthur Budaghyan
The Labor Market Is Cooling

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2022.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Chinese Imports And Exports Contract In October
China’s October trade data was a big miss. Exports is USD terms contracted by 0.3% y/y following 5.7% y/y in September, below expectations of a mild deceleration to 4.5%. Similarly, imports contracted by 0.7% y/y following a 0.3% y/y increase, against…
Daily Insights
A Durable Turnaround In Chinese Stocks?
Chinese equities are starting November on a positive note. The Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 10% and 7.4% respectively since the beginning of the month. In particular, tech stocks have been outperforming, with the Hang Seng Tech index up 14.4% over this…
Daily Insights

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