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Emerging Markets

An Opportunity In Hungarian Domestic Bonds
According to our Emerging Markets strategists, Hungarian 10-year domestic bonds offer a good medium-term investment opportunity. The team believes that Hungarian growth has already peaked and is headed towards a recession. Given that exports make up a…
Daily Insights
On Capitulation And Good Versus Bad Disinflation

We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an improvement in supply-side dynamics, but bearish if it is demand driven. We believe it is the latter.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Takeaways From China’s 20th Party Congress
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, messages from the Party Congress suggest that China’s policymakers will continue to balance the trade-offs between short-term economic growth, socio-political stability and the nation's long-term…
Daily Insights
Reflections On The 20th Party Congress

The 20<sup>th</sup> Communist Party Congress concluded on Sunday with President Xi Jinping cementing his third term in office. We are maintaining our cautious stance on Chinese stocks and the exchange rate. The lack of a significant shift away from current macro and regulatory policies means that China’s economic recovery and stock performance remain at risk.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
China’s Equity Outlook Remains Bleak
China’s Q3 GDP growth data surprised to the upside. It accelerated to 3.9% y/y from 0.4% y/y in Q2, beating expectations of 3.3% y/y, and returned to growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis following a contraction in Q2. Meanwhile, economic data was mixed in…
Daily Insights
Taiwanese Export Orders Relapse In September
Taiwanese export orders are signaling a deterioration in global manufacturing activity. They relapsed in September, declining by 3.1% y/y following a brief 2% rebound in the prior month. In particular, orders to China dropped by 28% y/y, marking the sixth…
Daily Insights
Indonesian Stocks’ Outperformance Will Fizzle Out
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay underweight Indonesian stocks in EM and Emerging Asian equity portfolios. Indonesian stocks have sharply outperformed the Emerging Markets benchmark this year. And yet in…
Daily Insights
Chinese And Global Thermal Coal Prices: An Unsustainable Gap

There has been an unprecedented divergence between global and Chinese thermal coal ("coal") prices since the Russia-Ukraine war commenced in February 2022. Such a wide price gap is unsustainable. This price convergence will continue, with international prices falling faster than Chinese ones.

China Investment Strategy
How To Read Xi's 20th Party Congress Speech

Favor US and Southeast Asian stocks over global stocks. Stay underweight China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Chinese Inflationary Pressures Ease In September
Chinese headline CPI inflation accelerated from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% y/y in September. However, this headline figure overstates the extent of price pressures in the Chinese economy. The increase was led by an 8.8% y/y rise in food prices. Meanwhile, core CPI…
Daily Insights

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