A weaker USD resulting from more dovish forward guidance from the Fed, and evidence of continued production declines in non-OPEC and OPEC countries will continue to buoy oil prices.
These general themes - along with our assessment that markets were overestimating downside price risk and underestimating upside risks arising from supply destruction and geopolitical instability - supported the best-performing…
Risk assets are stuck in a range driven by the Fed feedback loop. But the current rally may continue for another quarter or two.
While the post-GFC linkage between oil prices and medium-term inflation expectations evident in the 5-year/5-year (5y5y) CPI swaps market will continue to be debated for years to come, this is an empirical fact that will affect…
Lower oil prices are aggravating financial and social stress in poorer OPEC states, particularly in Venezuela, where the government recently executed a gold-for-cash swap ahead of looming debt payments.
The Fed's decision to scale back intended interest rate hikes reflects economic reality.
We differ markedly with the U.S. EIA's assessment of the near-term evolution of oil supply and demand.